I do believe that the C919 will eventually receive FAA certification. I think it's only a matter of time before the COMAC learns how to be approved through the FAA,just like Boeing and Airbus have. It wont happen over night...or even in the next 10 years but it will eventually happen. The Chinese have a lot to learn when it comes to FAA approval in lots of categories such as preventative maintenance and production. However anything can be learned with enough determination and man power; both of which the Chinese government has lots of.
U.S. commercial 121 carriers will have some serious and significant choices to make if the C919 becomes approved by the FAA. Chances are this aircraft will be cheaper then the comparative Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 (Aboulafia, 2010). Carriers will have to decide whether or not to invest in this new cheaper aircraft as opposed to staying with their current providers such as Boeing and Airbus. Public perception is also something to consider. Personally I feel it's better to invest in the most American company when it comes to purchasing aircraft even if they're a little more expensive. Many people simply don't care or completely disagree and believe as a business the more affordable aircraft is more beneficial. When I look at pictures of the C919 it's very similar looking to the comparative competition. This means the average person wont even notice the difference even if they were flying on one. We're all more receptive to these subtle changes because we're going to school to get an aviation related job and most of us are pilots. We can name types of planes and notice the little things. The American public will not because less then 1% are like us. They won't care what kind of plane they're flying in if it's got a familiar logo on the tail and cheaper price on the ticket. As soon as one major airline starts to buy these planes and lower airfare prices others will be sure to follow. I don't think this will happen for at least 20 or so years but I do believe it is inevitable and unfortunately Boeing and Airbus may have a tough road ahead.
COMAC's relationship with the Chinese government is the same as all the major airlines in China. They are both COMPLETELY owned and controlled by the government.Basically the whole aviation industry in China is under government control and funding.There is also a smaller "business" class jet being manufactured by COMAC that has already taken flight (Reuters 2015).
If the C919 receives FAA certification it will have little effect on other companies trying to become competitors to Boeing and Airbus. You need to have unlimited funding and resources to start a company big enough to become competition to the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus in producing commercial airliners that are FAA certified. I think the only entity with unlimited money and resources is the Chinese government and even they are having a very tough time getting FAA certified. I don't see anyone else trying to compete with Boeing and Airbus in the near future.
I haven't seen any public direct responses from Boeing or Airbus about the roll out of the Comac C919. Honestly they have no reason to respond. They are in charge and control the industry and know the FAA like the back of their hand. Boeing and Airbus have a Phd. in airliner production and Comac just started kinder garden. It will be many years before they need to worry about Comac even possibly competing and it may never happen.
References
"China's Comac rolls out C919 jet, ground tests to start soon" Reuters. 1 November 2015. Retrieved 2 November 2015.
"Airbus Group-media" airbusgroup. Retrieved 7 April 2015.
Aboulafia, R. Comac C919 Program Briefing. World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing. 2010.
It appears you have thought about the different angles of this argument. Honestly I think that even if the C919 gets an FAA certification, the american Boeing and the European Airbus will have nothing to worry about. Sure the new Chinese airplane will be cheaper, but that is because it will be cheaper quality, not only this but it will be heavier and the engines will be less economical. I personally do not think that the COMAC airplanes will leave Asia.
ReplyDeleteI agree that eventually it is possible that the C919 will receive approval but there is doubt. History has shown that COMAC do not have the track record of FAA approvals so they will have to go through alot of trials and errors to reach the meticulous requirements. But at this point i do not see them as being a threat or a future threat to Boeing or Airbus.
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